Risk Assessment in Criminal Justice Portland State University PDXScholar Criminology and Criminal Justice Faculty Publications and Presentations Criminology and Criminal Justice 2-2017 Risk Assessment in Criminal Justice Kris R. Henning Portland State University, khenning@pdx.edu Ryan M. Labrecque Second, historical data may not be readily available. One of the most consequential applications of AI is in pretrial risk assessment. In the context of evaluating the performance of risk assessment instruments, however, predictive validity is the primary measure of a tools performance. Or it might use machine-learning algorithms to change and adapt as variables within the system are calibrated. In a follow-up study, we attempted to account for why we saw so much variation in the use of risk assessment at sentencing and why so many eligible offenders do not receive the recommended alternative sentences. These studies of judicial practice and opinion concerning risk assessment produced several important insights into how to better institutionalize the use of risk assessment in sentencing. Criminogenic risks are the most difficult to evaluate in a criminal justice risk assessment because they are directly related to crime and criminal behavior. It is important to note that the performance of risk assessment tools may change over time and differ across populations. Labeling someone as high-risk to reoffend does not mean that individual will definitely reoffend; rather, it means that a large number of people sharing these characteristics have reoffended in the past. Other RAIs influence a wide variety of judicial decisions, including sentencing decisions and probation and parole requirements. We found that many indeed, most defendants eligible for these alternative sentences did not receive them. Why Are Risk Assessments Important? by Jayson Hawkins. In this approach, the data needed for validation would be collected prospectively as the agency needs to follow their cases over time to observe their recidivism outcome. The NVRA was included as one of the sentencing worksheets to be completed for all eligible offenders convicted of one of four drug or property felonies larceny, fraud, drug schedule I/II (e.g., possession of small amounts of cocaine), and drug/other (e.g., marijuana distribution).18 If the offenders total score on the NVRA was below a specified cutoff the cutoff necessary to achieve a 25 percent diversion rate from prison, if judges were to consistently follow the new guidelines the offender was recommended for an alternative sanction. If the offenders score was above that cutoff, the prison term recommended by the states discretionary sentencing guidelines remained in effect. In many justice contexts, risk is discussed in conjunction with needs. The survey consists of 43 questions that are asked of the offender during a structured interview. This ensures that any interested party can understand exactly how a risk determination is made, a distinct advantage over human decision-making processes. With only this rating, a judge would likely choose to incarcerate the individual to ensure they appear in court. . Of offenders who scored as higher risk on the NVRA, 23 percent (941 people) received alternative sentences.20. For example, Jung et al. We found that, of the offenders with available NVRA scores, 46 percent scored in the low-risk category and were therefore recommended for an alternative sentence. Our analysis focused specifically on mental health and substance abuse services provided by these CSBs. There are two types of assessments: clinical and algorithmic. With colleagues, we conducted three types of analyses in our work studying the use of risk assessment at sentencing in Virginia. By continuing to use this website, you consent to Duke University's usage of cookies and similar technologies, in accordance with the Duke Privacy Statement. Review the YouTube Terms of Service and the Google Privacy Policy. How well does a tool separate those who experience an outcome of interest (e.g., recidivism) from those who do not? To address these pressing questions concerning how judges use risk assessment at sentencing, we conducted a series of studies of decision-making using risk assessment tools. Here are some of the key questions regarding predictive validity that can be explored without too much technical detail: Agencies should plan to monitor and, if possible, improve the performance of tools on a periodic basis. It is important to note that the agency runs the risk of misusing the instrument in this approach if the instrument was developed on a significantly different sample of individuals. They reveal deep flaws in the criminal justice system . Copyright 2023 Duke University School of Law. Many RAIs can explain exactly how they arrive at their decisions, an advantage over traditional human decision-making. Review the YouTube Terms of Service and the Google Privacy Policy. In order to avert a resulting fiscal collapse13 of the states prison system, risk assessment was adopted to reduce the use of incarceration for nonviolent criminals, in order to offset the increased prison stays for violent offenders that would result from this legislation.14 The legislature directed the newly formed Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission (VCSC) to develop an actuarial risk assessment instrument to guide judges in making sentencing decisions for offenders convicted of several drug and property crimes. They are used to inform decisions about who can be set free at every stage of the. Raven A. Lewis, MA is a recent participant in the National Institute of Justice's Research Assistantship Program and a doctoral candidate in the School of Criminal Justice at Rutgers University, Newark. . In. The Federal Pretrial Risk Assessment helps determine a defendant's risk of failure to appear, . The first step when using a risk assessment tool is to gather the necessary data and information. Corbett-Davies, S., Pierson, E., Feller, A., & Goel, S. (2016, October 17). Summary The number of people incarcerated in the United States has increased significantly over the past three decades from approximately 419,000 inmates in 1983 to approximately 1.5 million inmates in 2013. Brookings recognizes that the value it provides is in its absolute commitment to quality, independence, and impact. Specifically, we examined the premise that the probability a low-risk offender received an alternative sentence increased as the availability of community programs increased. Judicature | Bolch Judicial Institute | 210 Science Drive | Durham, NC 27708-0362 | (919) 613-7073 | judicature@law.duke.edu The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit organization devoted to independent research and policy solutions. Second, any algorithm used in a high-stakes policy context, such as criminal sentencing, should be transparent. A risk prediction for a given individualwhether from a judge or an RAIis, as a result, anchored in the historical behavior of similar individuals. The PSA is a unique risk assessment system that does not necessitate an interview with the offender to determine risk. Someone with antisocial attitudes or associates, for example, may be more likely to reoffend than someone without these risk factors. You are given 200 seeds to figure out what size, color, and shape of seeds are most likely to germinate and grow into healthy plants. Danner, M. J., VanNostrand, M., & Spruance, L. M. (2016). If these outcomes are the product of unfair practices, it is possible that any derivative model will learn to replicate them, rather than predict the true underlying risk for misconduct. Policing the future. Risk assessment tools can be valuable for keeping the public safe if used correctly. This can be achieved through revising the tools scoring algorithm or updating the list of risk predictors used. The process of determining how well a tool performs at predicting risk is called validation, and a risk assessments performance is referred to as predictive validity. How accurately does the tool predict the likelihood of such an outcome? Abstract. The approach taken by the American Law Institute is a hybrid of what sentencing scholars distinguish as two polar opposite approaches to the allocation of criminal punishment usually termed retributive and utilitarian. Updated June 30, 2022 Related Topic: Civil and Criminal Justice State laws authorize, require, encourage or regulate court use of pretrial risk assessment tools. (2016). However, other researchers have noted a substantial statistical flaw in ProPublicas findings: They can be mathematically explained by differences in underlying offense rates for each race without requiring a biased model.17 When researchers apply a traditional measure of model fairnesswhether individuals with the same risk score re-offend at the same rate, regardless of raceevidence of racial discrimination disappears.18, Even still, a lack of evidence does not guarantee that discrimination is absent, and these claims should be taken seriously. They are useful in determining which offenders pose the greatest risk to public health and safety and are most likely to reoffend. Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services . Data on community treatment resources came from the Virginia Department of Behavioral Health and Developmental Services. This follows the fact that, given similar criminal histories, recidivism rates are statistically lower for women than for men.14 Either way, Loomis knowledge of the models use of gender allowed him to challenge its inclusion, an example of how transparency in RAIs can help stakeholders better understand this high-stakes decision-making process. What is risk assessment in the criminal justice system? Secure .gov websites use HTTPS Predictive prosecution. I also dont go to psychics.. Life, liberty, and trade secrets: Intellectual property in the criminal justice system. A "risk factor" is any item that statistically correlates with the outcome in question and that occurs before the outcome in time it does not need to "cause" the outcome. When multiple splits are used, the developer repeatedly examines one of the splits at a time and averages results from the multiple validation tests. . This sort of data is collected via in-person interviews and criminal records. SF DA Gascn launching tool to remove race when deciding to charge suspects. On the other hand, a perfectly fair RAI may be cause for concern if it is selectively used by judges to justify punitive treatment for communities of color. (2020). As illustrated below, this is also closely related to how the tool is developed and implemented. For example, current RAIs only infer the risk of misconduct if an individual is released without support. Our findings confirm the treatment resource hypothesis to be one factor accounting for the wide variation among courts and individual judges in the extent to which drug and property offenders assessed as low risk of recidivism actually receive a sentence of community treatment that does not include incarceration in a local jail. The more accurately a tool predicts risk, the more effectively criminal justice interventions can be assigned, and the safer a community will ultimately be. Risk is also distinct from stakes, or how serious or harmful the nature of the reoffending will be. The accuracy, equity, and jurisprudence of criminal risk assessment. This is your prediction model: medium, round, bright yellow seeds are most likely to thrive. It is possible to predict risk for high-stakes offending specifically, and it is important to understand that high risk does not necessarily mean at high-risk to engage in violent victimization. This meta-review thus attempts to answer the following questions: 1) How well does criminogenic . First, criminal justice risk assessments have been undertaken in the United States since the 1920s (Borden 1928; Burgess 1928). Nicol Turner Lee, Monica Anderson, Camisha Parker, Camdyn Parker, Chloe Lee. Depending on the source of these data to be used for validation (or the mode of collecting such data), there are two general approaches to validating the performance of risk assessment tools. The Policy Digest Series inspires by introducing and reviewing scholarly research on risk and needs for a broad audience. Sections of this report following a summary include: an overview of risk and needs assessment; RNR principles; critiques of risk and needs assessments-making judgment about individuals based on group tendencies, the separation of assessment of risk from assessment of needs, and the potential for discriminatory effects; and select issues for cong. This website uses cookies as well as similar tools and technologies to understand visitors' experiences. "But these findings suggest that current risk assessments cannot fully distinguish between individuals . The measure and mismeasure of fairness: A critical review of fair machine learning. Researchers in the field of risk assessment and criminal justice constantly work to refine existing statistical models of risk prediction and identify new, potentially useful predictors. STANDARDS FOR EDUCATIONAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTING. Activities supported by its donors reflect this commitment. The tool may be no more advanced than a simple survey akin to an online quiz. Simple rules to guide expert classifications. Artificial Intelligence & Emerging Technology, Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative. The risk assessment system will then be used to classify inmates as minimum, low, medium, or high risk of committing another crime in the future. Skeem, J. L., & Lowenkamp, C. T. (2016). ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. These second generation risk assessments were numeric predictions derived from analyses of static risk factors. The petitioner, Eric Loomis, made several arguments against the use of an RAI called Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) in his sentencing decision.12. For example, though race groups have been estimated to consume marijuana at roughly equal rates, Black Americans have historically been convicted for marijuana possession at higher rates.19 A model that learns to predict convictions for marijuana possession from these historical records would unfairly rate Black Americans as higher risk, even though true underlying rates of use are the same across race groups. The tool developer must then collect new data. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this report are not influenced by any donation. COMPAS is one such tool, though there are many other software programs and tools available, with some states even developing their own instruments. One way to balance these competing priorities is to require a detailed explanation anytime a judge deviates from an RAI recommendation. One of the most concerning possible sources of bias can come from the historical outcomes that an RAI learns to predict. Algorithmic tools are in widespread use across the criminal justice system today. For example, a justice agency may adopt an instrument that has been developed elsewhere without any local customization. Finallyand perhaps most importantalgorithms should be evaluated as they are implemented. Algorithmic RAIs have the potential to bring consistency, accuracy, and transparency to judicial decisions. Running an RNA on manual inputs takes a great deal of time, and it also opens the door to subjective and biased scoring. simulated the use of a simple checklist-style RAI that only considered the age of the defendant and their number of prior failures to appear.8 The authors noted that judges in an undisclosed jurisdiction had widely varying release rates (from roughly 50% to almost 90% of individuals released). The goal of a risk assessment is to help figure out which offenders are most likely to break the law again so that they can get the right amount of supervision and help. But if used appropriately and carefully, algorithms can substantially improve impactful decisions, making them more consistent and transparent to any interested stakeholder. The insurance company cant know which people will be in car accidents, but it can know what combination of attributes make the odds of an accident a lot higher. You randomly pick 100 seeds and plant each of them to see which ones successfully grow on your property. It is important to consider the context in which the tool is used when using such metrics. The VCSC developed an actuarial instrument that was independently validated by the National Center for State Courts and adopted statewide in 2002.17 The instrument was called the Nonviolent Risk Assessment (NVRA) since its goal was to identify nonviolent offenders at the lowest risk of recidivism for diversion from prison. POLICY DIGEST - HUMAN DECISIONS AND MACHINE PREDICTIONS. SSRN: 3168452, Jung, J., Concannon, C., Shroff, R., Goel, S. and Goldstein, D.G. This requires additional data against which the tools prediction can be tested. It incorporates a case and risk management tool to help organize and store all information about an offenders case and supervision. Skip to main content; Skip to primary sidebar; . With the support of Chief Justice Donald Lemons, we mailed a survey to all circuit judges in Virginia, and received responses from 85 judges, or 53 percent.21 We found that a strong majority of judges endorse the principle that sentencing eligible drug and property offenders should include a consideration of the risk that offenders will commit new crimes, are familiar with the use of the NVRA in sentencing, and usually consider the results of the NVRA in imposing sentences in these cases. The pressure on Republicans was quick: line up behind Donald Trump or risk looking like they weren't on Team G.O.P. How facial recognition makes you safer. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. For example, although Loomis did not know the full structure of the model, he knew that it incorporated gender as a factor, and he argued that this was discrimination. When asked specifically about the availability of local treatment resources that allow for alternative sentencing such as outpatient drug or mental health programs within the jurisdiction of their circuit, however, 70 percent of judges rated the existence of these resources as less than adequate, and 5 percent of judges rated local resources as virtually non-existent. The following are representative comments from judges in this survey about the possibility of sentencing defendants to an alternative sentence: An additional qualitative study involved in-depth interviews with circuit court judges in Virginia, who agreed, after having been surveyed, to discuss these questions with us further. Public Safety Risk Assessment Clearinghouse, National Guidelines for Post-Conviction Risk and Needs Assessment, Actuarial assessment outperforms clinical judgment alone in predicting outcomes, Actuarial assessment supports consistency in criminal justice decision-making, Applying criminal justice interventions (such as treatment) by actuarially-determined level of risk is necessary in order for those interventions to be effective. Risk assessment tools can inform criminal justice decisions, such as whether to release or detain pretrial defendants awaiting trial and what level of supervision to impose upon probationers. The court disagreed, arguing that the judges decision was not solely determined by COMPAS, avoiding Loomis individualization concerns. In several counties in my Circuit, there are no inpatient treatment options., We need more alternative options [we] lack sufficient treatment programs and follow-up. The author helped design both Patternizr and the bias mitigation project at the SFDA. Any number between 0 and 2 is considered low risk, 3 to 5 is considered moderate risk, and 6 to 8 is considered high risk. Judges, prosecutors, and data scientists should critically examine each element of data provided to an algorithmparticularly the predicted outcomesto understand if these data are biased against any community. These findings are consistent with a justice reinvestment model of corrections, whereby states have enacted statutes designed to reallocate the fiscal benefits of reducing mass incarceration to fund expansion of community alternatives to incarceration. It does not say with certainty that someone will or wont reoffend. The meta-analysis of clinical judgment project: Fifty-six years of accumulated research on clinical versus statistical prediction. Suppose our buying guide helped us accurately identify successful seeds 50 out of 100 times. and Manage Risk for Targeted Violence and Terrorism - Newport News, VA - 2023-11-29. Aileen M. Cannon, the Federal District Court judge assigned to preside over former President Donald J. Trump's classified documents case, has scant experience running criminal . Third, we connected these approaches and analyzed whether one particular set of responses by judges that their use of alternative sentences depends on the presence of local treatment resources in fact corresponded to patterns that we observe in the sentencing data and in the data on the availability of community programs. Her research interests include the collateral consequences of imprisonment, support during and after prison release, and gender differences . "Risk assessment, and algorithmic prediction more broadly, is being heralded as a key component of criminal justice reform," said Seth J. Prins, PhD assistant professor of Epidemiology and Sociomedical Sciences and author of the study. How frequently does the tool inaccurately predict a low-risk individual to be at high-risk (i.e., false positive errors) and vice versa (i.e., false negative errors)? Secure .gov websites use HTTPS States have made the use of risk instruments advisory, rather than presumptive or mandatory. Unlike most risk and needs assessment tools, the COMPAS assessment tool uses artificial intelligence for scoring and does not reveal its scoring methodology. We measured the strength of these community treatment resources in a number of ways. In general, humans should always make the final decision, with any deviations requiring an explanation and some effort by the judge. For example, the NVRA for the crime of larceny now consists of five risk factors: offender age at the time of the offense; gender; prior adult felony convictions; prior adult incarcerations; and whether the offender was legally restrained (e.g., on probation) at the time of the offense. gisdttir, S., White, M. J., Spengler, P. M., Maugherman, A. S., Anderson, L. A., Cook, R. S., Cohen, G. et al. (2019, June 9). A computer program used for bail and sentencing decisions was labeled biased against blacks. This is the professional or clinical judgment approach. Depending on the source of these data to be used for validation (or the mode of collecting such data), there are two . When classifying individuals into risk categories based on the results of an assessment instrument, professionals refer to the aforementioned agency and developer guidelines. Criminal justice professionals conduct risk assessments to predict the likelihood of an individual reoffending. All states that use the LS/CMI offender screening tool use it to set levels of probation, parole supervision, and prison time. The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit organization based in Washington, D.C. Our mission is to conduct in-depth, nonpartisan research to improve policy and governance at local, national, and global levels. Adherents of the retributive approach believe an offenders moral culpability for crime committed in the past should be the sole consideration in determining his or her punishment. There are numerous tools and software programs used in risk assessment, each with its own structure, features, and situations in which it should be used. Justice Sonia Sotomayor has not recused herself from court cases involving publisher Penguin Random House, which has paid her millions in book royalties."A demand for ethical constraints is not . Hutchins Roundup: Climate-induced losses, Russian oil price cap, and more, Addressing urgent challenges for the healthcare supply chain, Spurred by federal legislation, new industrial investments are reaching a wide swath of the country. However, there is growing concern that risk assessments used in criminal justice may be biased against certain groups of people. . The court disagreed, emphasizing that including gender in the model helped increase its accuracy. Risk assessment tools can inform criminal justice decisions, such as whether to release or detain pretrial defendants awaiting trial and what level of supervision to impose upon probationers. Though many studies have simulated the impact of RAIs, research on their real-world use is limited. Some of the most commonly used tools are the Public Safety Assessment (PSA), the Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI), and the Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS). Risk in this sense is a probability: the likelihood of a bad outcome over a period of time, based on past outcomes for a similar group of individuals. These assessments can be used in various situations, such as when deciding whether or not to release a defendant on bail, sentencing offenders, or developing parole plans. In the criminal justice system, there are three main types of risk factors: static, dynamic, and criminal. Its actually not that clear. Unfortunately, that costs money which communities are reluctant to provide., To accurately impose and/or consider whether or not a judge is complying with a recommendation bona fide alternative programs must first exist.. They are used or considered in making pretrial, sentencing, and parole decisions. The result has been a judicial lack of reliance on risk information, if not outright hostility to its use.23, A concurring judge in the Iowa Court of Appeals case of State v. Guise elaborated: Even if the emerging risk assessment tools are found to have a place in sentencing as a relevant factor, our law does not allow mere conclusions to be mounted on spikes and paraded around our courtrooms without statistical context.24. The findings can be used to make decisions about bail, sentencing, parole, and other offender management decisions. One class of algorithmic tools, called risk assessment instruments (RAIs), are designed to predict a defendant's future risk for misconduct. With this background, we turned to our original question, and found substantial support for a positive association between the availability of community treatment resources and the likelihood of receiving a nonjail alternative sentence. As a result, a judge must retain the ability to overrule an RAIs recommendations, even though this discretion may reduce accuracy and consistency.
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